The Yo-Yo was originally designed to be a weapon
Now it's use is relegated to describing my poker play. Up and Down, around and around, walk the dog...
Why is it that after a tough losing streak I suddenly hit my outs? Or get a goofy call or raise when I obviously have the nuts? Why is it that after I have a nice winning streak I suddenly seem to get sucked out time and again by the calling stations?
The last few months have been one long win streak followed by a short but devastating, tilt filled losing streak where all my winnings go away, followed by a small buy in and another big win streak, followed by a cash out and another brutally devastating tilt and angst filled losing streak, followed by some more buy ins and a modest winning streak. What the hell is happening?
I talked about patience in my previous post (an eon ago) and I'm wondering how much patience really plays into my success. Patience works when I have it and my opponent loses it, and when I have a premium hand and my opponent doesn't, AND when my opponent doesn't suck out.
Here are a couple of typical situations.
The Hero (me) : AKs
The Villain : small pocket pair (7's or lower)
The result when I am patient? Flop hits the Hero and misses the Villain.
The result when I am impatient? Flop doesn't hit the hero and the Villain takes it down.
The result when I am a fingernail width away from complete tilt meltdown? Flop hits the Hero and the turn or river spikes the set for the Villain.
Or does it?
Last night I had a really good session, I played a few sng's and finished in the money in most of them. The two that I didn't finish in the money, I got sucked out MAJOR BIG TIME. Here are the two hands that knocked me out.
Both hands were against very loose aggressive players, their chip stacks fluctuated wildly the entire time I was at the table with them. Making bluff raises, making position moves and simply making really bad calls on re-raises that hit. This is what I remembered about their play. They called with inferior hands and hit, a lot. Two things that bothered me about this, first that they were so loose with their calls and raises that I could not get a handle on what they are holding at any given time. The second is that they were hitting so frequently that they had HUGE chip stacks that they were able to wield effectively like a bludgeon. Can't raise with a mid pocket pair, Throw away A-10 or lower. QJ almost unplayable, forget about low suited connectors. Both games had this guy at the table. No, he waqsn't actually the "same" player, but they played almost identical games. Very loose and almost suicidally aggressive.
So I waited, I waited until a situation called for making a big strong play to take away a big chunk of those bludgeoning chips.
Here is the first situation.
I'm in early position, second from the button. I find pocket rockets (why do all bad beat stories start off with pocket rockets?) so I decide I will try to induce a bluff by the (P)sycho (A)ggressive (N)imrod who has all the chips at the table. I get another limper and then the expected raise by PAN. There are 5 or 6 of us left at this point and I am either second or a close third in ship count at this point. PAN has me covered but if I win the hand I will cripple him down to last chip position. The blind levels are $100-$200 with a $25.00 ante. I have roughly 3000 in Chips, PAN has a little more than 4000. There is around 450 or so in the pot from the blinds, another $200 from me, and another $200 from the limper to my left, for a grand total of around $850. PAN raises another $600. for a total of about 1450 (just about what we each started with.) I decide that the pot is good enough and I don't want to play against two people so I do the all in re-raise. I really just want to win the pot right there, I don't mind a call from either the limper or PAN, but I just want the money that is already in the pot. Limper followed my script with a fold, but PAN does not oblige. He calls my all in with J 10 suited. And no he did not hit a runner runner flush to win the pot.
Flop comes Q-10-9. He picked up an open ended straight draw with the pair of tens. Turn comes a rag, and I'm thinking, don't hit the freaking straight on the river. The river obliges by spiking a 10. He made three of a kind on the river to knock me out fifth or sixth. And I'm trying to figure out why he would call an obvious over pair or at worst two over cards to his J 10.
Very next game I find myself in an almost identical situation. This time however I am the small blind. Again there are about 5-6 people left in the tourney, Blinds are at 100-200 with no ante, I am third or fourth in chips to PAN2 (The Return of PAN! Once is never enough.) I have about 2200 in chips, PAN2 has about 3100. But in the last few hands his stack went from 5000+ to to about 850 back to it's current 3200 or so. I had a feeling he would not back down to any hyper aggression so again I wanted a really premium hand to knock him on his arse. And no sooner than I ask am I dealt AKo. I would have preferred aces or kings (queens or jacks would have sufficed too I think) but Big Slick should work against the weak ass junk that he has been playing (and hitting I have to admit) with. So there is an early position limper, and then a raise from PAN2, folds to me in the small blind where I go all in. Limper folds and Pan calls with the monster of all monsters 10-9s! I am feeling really good especially when an Ace AND a 10 hit the flop. No way another 10 hits again! I believe the board even paired up (8's I think, but I'm not sure) so I'm not worried that he will hit a 9 for 2 pair. When the lucky, donkey hits a third 10 on the river. Two freaking times in a row I have top pair and I get called all in with a weak 10 and the donks make trips to knock me out. TWO FREAKING TIMES IN A ROW.
So I got have a couple of cigarettes and play another game and I notice that I am not playing against the opponents at the new table, I am still playing against PAN and PAN2. Mind you neither of these two numbnutz are sitting at the new table, but I am constantly looking to make raises against the first person I see make a questionable call with a weak assed hand. And I stop myself. I actually stopped a tilt from getting way out of control. Or did I? I did stop making super hyper aggressive lead plays, but I did make a very questionable call of an all in by the short stack at the table when I was comfortably in second chip position out of 4. I'm in the small blind, and I just took a huge stack off the current short stack by calling an all in with AQ to his pocket 9's. I hit the queen and he didn't improve and he was close to the felt. He goes all in a few times and survives to bring his stack back up to above 1k, when we find the fateful hand. First off this guy is a good player, I have played against him before and he is no slouch, I looked up his stats and they confirmed what I figured out by playing against him. He knows how to play well.
So He raises all in, and the button folds and I find myself in the small blind with pocket 7's. I think I decided that I was going to raise with these if it folded to me when this guy went all in. I didn't even think, I simply called, I reacted. I didn't give it a second thought, I told myself I have the best hand right now, and if he sucks out he sucks out. Why did I think I had the best hand? Not entirely sure, because he was short stacked and it smelled of a desperation play. any face card, any ace, got to make a stand before i get blinded out. In that situation I have to think that my pocket pair is good. So I call without hesitation. Big blind quickly gets out of the way and folds. So Mr Premier Good Player turns over pocket Jacks. JJ -vs- 77. Not looking too good for me I must say. And then the flop comes out and I am thinking can it get worse without him hitting a jack? 10 -9 - Q. He picks up an up and down straight draw in addition to having the over pair. Well fate didn't wait until the river to add drama to this one, the turn brought me my miracle 7 and an innocuous 10 on the river giving me a boat and the rest of his chips.
So what gives? I think I'm making the right play but it turns out to be the wrong play but I suck out and win. Is that other player writing a blog about the donkey who knocked him out with an improved under pair against his over pair like I was earlier? Was it a good play on my part? It turns out that I ended up winning this tournament. But if that 7 doesn't hit, I'm very easily looking at being knocked out of the money. So what the fuck? Do you have to play "bad" to win the tournament? When I play with "patience" like I was espousing in the previous post, I often finish in the money, but rarely win it all, when I play like this, I find that when I do make it to the money I win it or finish third. All or almost nothing. When I play "safe" (i.e. with patience) I'll finish 2nd or 3rd more often than not. I looked at some other hand histories of tournaments that I had won. I found a lot more questionable calls on my part than I remembered when I won the damn thing. In one I was chip leader with 4 or 5 remaining and it is folded to me in the big blind, and I find A-3s (clubs.) The small stack is in the big blind. I figure my ace is good since it is folded to me, and since it is suited it is even more of a reason to raise and bully the small stack. Well he re-raises all in and I quickly call only to find a small pocket pair. I won the hand in the worst and cheapest way that a small pocket pair can be beaten. I counterfeited his pair. The flop comes with an over pair to his pair and the river brings the second over pair to his. So my Ace out kicked him for two pair. I didn't give that hand a lot of thought after the fact. But why did I think that my A-3 was so good? What if he had an Ace with a better kicker? Why didn't I even consider the possibility of him having a pocket pair? TWO over cards are almost equal against an under pocket pair, not ONE over card, Why did I assume I had the best hand without analyzing the situation, and why did I forget about it so quickly after winning the damn thing? After all, I was just randomly going through my tournament win hand histories to remember that hand. At the time of that win, I walked away from that game pleased with my play and result, but after further review found a big blunder that could have cost me the game. In fact it is that very blunder that cost me lots of games in my losing streak. Over valuing hands that I had no business over valuing. That time it didn't cost me and it actually propelled me to the win. Does a win like that cause you to change how you play the next time? More loose, take more chances, make more plays (i.e bluff) etc...? Is that why I play with more patience after a losing session? Back to the basics? If back to the basics works so well then why does it seem that I change my style after a winning streak? I know that you have to adjust your style of play to the opponents, but you have to start somewhere, right?
So what the hell gives with my game? I am a lot better than I was when I first started playing a few years ago. I'm playing for bigger stakes and taking more money home than I did in the past. I've had two very successful months playing, and all of a sudden I start chasing and making a lot of plays, and playing at higher stakes than I should be, and I got spanked. What the freaking fuck is going on with my game? I want to ask where my game went but now I'm wondering if I ever had it at all. I thought I was recognizing when I make a bad play and get rewarded, but now I am not sure. How quickly confidence turns to overconfidence turns to abject uncertainty. Got to keep that yo-yo from dancing in my head.
No more chasing for me. No I will chase the occasional flush or straight draw, I won't chase the higher stake game to make up for a bad session. If I win this one game at this higher level, I'll cover my losses, and then when that goes south, It becomes, well if I win this one, then I can lessen my losses... That's where the tilting causes the worst chasing, not when the cards fall, but what table I chase them at. I'm still a little fish in a little pond, and I have to remember that when this game I love comes so easy. So no more big ponds for a while. No more chasing those barracuda's when I should be frying the pan fish. Each pond has them, fish. I just have to stop being one of them.
If only it were that easy.
